And why do we look ten years ahead during foresight games?
The most obvious (but not necessarily the most efficient) way to look into the industry’s future is to ask experts. After all, they are the ones who are well informed, and, as such, they must see weak signals, or so-called “emerging issues,” almost imperceptible signs of the future changes which can be detected today. Of course, we need many experts not to suffer from one expert’s personal biases. So, it is safe to assume that ten or twenty professionals can help us create a plausible picture of tomorrow’s world.
And even though it is always important to hear experts’ opinions, futurists rarely use this approach. They prefer playing games, and for a good reason. Four major problems make the method of experts assessments less efficient than it might seem.
As I already mentioned before, we are inferior future thinkers, and this is the first obstacle we need to overcome. It is hard for us to think about the future because this skill…