What makes the world change? A basic principle

A couple of thoughts for a strategist or a futurist

Strategy — map it out yourself

A couple of thoughts for a strategist or a futurist

It is hard to believe it now, but relatively recently, in historical terms, women didn’t have the right to vote, drive a car, or receive an education. Steve Wozniak, the Apple Inc. co-founder, debuted the first prototype of Apple I, the first personal computer on the planet, in July 1976. It was only 46 years ago, and now we all have in our pockets computers that are much faster, user-friendly, and can connect us to the global network. The first commercial flight was made in 1914 in Florida, only 108 years ago. The world is changing, and it is changing fast.

But what makes it change? What force drives all these rapid alterations? We often use the word “progress” to answer such questions. But progress is made by people. What motivates people who bring new technological solutions, political concepts, social ideas, or pieces of art into the world? The answer seems simple and self-evident — people who do all these things are creative, proactive, and enthusiastic by nature, and this makes them move the world forward.

But if we look at history, it may seem that the world moves in a certain direction. It never moves straightforwardly and sometimes takes several steps back. But in general, it changes from an uncomfortable and dangerous place where a human’s life price was close to nothing to one where people respect each other and at least try to live peacefully. This world is a long way from perfect, but, on average, we enjoy a life in which we don’t afraid that our children will die from hunger, a life full of safety, comfort, and interesting opportunities. How come we find ourselves here?

Human needs

I have already written that people are driven by several basic needs. This theory was introduced by Steven Reiss, an American psychologist. But another American psychologist, Marshal Rosenberg, proposed another theory. He insisted that people have more than 16 basic desires, but he agreed with Reiss that this number is limited by nature.

So, there are almost 8 billion people on the planet who want, by and large, the same things. And what do all those proactive, creative and enthusiastic people do? They look for a way to satisfy these needs. Hundreds of years ago, people had the same list of desires, but there were no technical solutions, social agreements, or somebody’s willingness to fulfill even some of them. And the world evolves from the point where most of the needs were left unmet to the future in which more of them are addressed. And that is what we call “progress.”

We tend to believe that technical progress is made by geniuses. A genius invents a bulb (a mobile phone, a computer, a social media, a synthetic fabric — propose your own list), people say “wow!” and start using it. But it doesn’t work this way.

According to Forbes, “of today’s 2.1 million active patents, 95 percent fail to be licensed or commercialized.” Therefore, geniuses invent many different things, and only few of them find their way to the market. But who makes the final decisions? Customers do. If they feel (or know, or believe) that this particular device (clothing, piece of furniture, and so forth) responds to some of their basic needs, they want to try it. If they don’t, it will leave them indifferent.

The same things happen when it comes to social movements. I doubt that women didn’t want to be free hundreds of years ago. But there was no solution to this problem until some brave female activists started fighting for their rights. It was not easy, and they didn’t win immediately. But as soon as a critical mass of women understanding they needed it and ready to fight for it was gained, the world began to change.

Basic needs for practical use

I use Reiss’s and Rosenberg’s theories for strategic workshops. We can understand the customers better by trying to walk in their shoes, envisioning the possible needs of a typical consumer. Delving deeply into clients’ needs helps a group to come up with new product solutions and even business models.

Basic desires can also be used as a reference point for a foresight game. We can analyze the most relevant and essential desires of a society or a group of people into whose future we would like to look. And we can ask ourselves — to what extent are they fulfilled now? Which of the needs are both important for these people and unsatisfied most? In which direction this particular group will move in their wanting to address them? This may bring us valuable insights into the social trends that will change the landscape of this society in the future.

If you would like to arrange a strategic workshop or a foresight game — drop me a line. Learn more about foresight games here.

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