The End of History Illusion

We can’t see our future selves

We can’t see our future selves

A friend of mine is a social entrepreneur. He loves his work and believes he will do it till the end of his life. I doubt that because I know that previously he was a system analyst, a startup founder, and a deputy CEO for a large state-owned enterprise. He hasn’t turned 35 but has pivoted his career at least three times, which makes me believe he will do it again. But when I tell him that, he only smiles, being sure that this time he has found his calling. He is under the End of History Illusion. And so are we all.

As I have already mentioned in one of my posts, we are inferior future thinkers because this skill was not evolutionary conditioned, and there is scientific proof. But in 2013, another article on this topic appeared. It was called The End of History Illusion, and it was based on research conducted by three scientists from Harvard. And it proves one more time that future thinking is not among humans’ strengths.

The illusion

we make crucial decisions based on the concept that we will look at the issues the same way as we do now in the future

In brief, people are sure that they will remain pretty much the same in the next ten years in terms of their thoughts, beliefs, and worldviews, even if they admit that they were significantly different from what they are now ten years ago. This is because, at any particular moment, we think we are “the true selves,” and we make crucial decisions based on the concept that we will look at the issues the same way as we do now in the future.

My older daughter got a tattoo being a university student. I tried to talk her out of that, but she was stubborn and did what she wanted. And now she visibly regrets it. Many years ago, I decided I was too old to believe in fairytales and chase my distant dreams, and I joined a major enterprise. I became a small cog in a large machine and wasted two precious years. I don’t regret it now (because I don’t believe in regrets at all), but at that moment, making that decision, I was sure that I would never question it.

The End of History Illusion and strategy

It is not said directly in the article, but I believe that this cognitive bias also influences our ability to think strategically. We often make long-term business decisions in groups, but groups are sets of individuals, and if everyone suffers from this illusion, the group inevitably suffers as well. The idea that the future will be pretty much the same as the present is enhanced by humans’ natural fear of the future. It is a reinforcing loop — we tend to believe that we won’t change, and our fear of tomorrow strengthens it, and vice versa.

It doesn’t mean it is impossible to overcome this illusion, but it requires cognitive effort and methodology. That’s one more reason why I believe that brainstorming rarely works. Gathering C-suite in a distant hotel without WiFi access won’t unleash their creativity and overpower their future thinking biases (and there are plenty of them). That’s why I believe in Foresight and Strategic games rather than conventional meetings or workshops.

Small kids are afraid of the big and frightening world but learn to interact with it by playing games. It is the most natural way to master our skills. So, if you think about a new disruptive strategy — start playing games.

If you need help with a Foresight game or Strategic game, don’t hesitate to get in touch with me, and we can discuss it.

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