The danger of seeking certainty

The future is creatable

The future is creatable

Planning as a process is meant to reduce uncertainty. Let’s imagine you go hiking. Some kinds of preparation will be necessary. It is helpful to check the weather forecast, to learn about water sources, take some food and warm closes, etc. Even if you do all these things thoroughly, it doesn’t guarantee that nothing bad can happen to you, but the likelihood of that is much lower. The same happens if you take the trouble to make short-term action plans in business. But it doesn’t work when it comes to strategy.

The main feature of the future is uncertainty. As Woody Allen said, “If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans”. There is no way to predict the future, and even the brightest minds make wrong forecasts. Thus, “strategic planning” as a way to reduce uncertainty not only doesn’t work — it brings a false feeling of confidence. And this is a dangerous trap.

Let’s take scenario planning as an example. On the one hand, it is a valuable tool helping …