Seeing The Future in the Rear-View Mirror
Recalling the future
Almost all failed business strategies have one thing in common – the future assumptions they rely on turned out to be wrong.
The bad news is that they always turn out to be wrong. And we can do little about it.
But it doesn’t mean we can do nothing.
Oracles and warlocks
We make plans for the future without having a clue about what plans it has in store for us.
Humanity has tried to look into the future in various ways.
In ancient Rome and Mesopotamia, priests did it by peering at the entrails of animals.
In ancient Egypt and Greece, they interpreted dreams – messages from the gods.
In Mexico, oracles would enter a trance using psychoactive substances for this purpose.
Today’s analysts employ complicated mathematical models. So far, they aren’t doing much better.
Failed predictions
In 1894, The Times published an article which stated: “In 50 years, every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure”. Unknown analysts meticulously calculated the n…