Reading Tea Leaves

Future is unpredictable. Do we have to be ready for any scenario?

Have you ever heard of Intelligent Apps? These are apps that “include technologies like virtual personal assistants (VPAs), have the potential to transform the workplace by making everyday tasks easier (prioritizing emails) and its users more effective (highlighting important content and interactions).” 

Do you have an intelligent app on your smartphone? I don’t. I hadn’t heard about them until recently. However, in 2017, Gartner included them in its Top 10 Technology Trends – along with augmented reality (do you employ it often?) and blockchain.

Future is unpredictable. Gartner does a great job of analyzing technological trends and still makes mistakes. 

How can a business leader work with such a level of uncertainty? How can we think strategically in a world where no one knows what will happen?

There are four fundamental approaches to the problem.

Picture by puhimec, purchased on iStock

1. Scenario planning of any kind

There are many theories, methods, and tools for scenario planning. The basic idea behind all these tools is simple (but not easy). We can envision several possible and plausible future scenarios and choose a strategy that works relatively well for all of them. 

It will be a decent strategy for a big, old enterprise whose leaders think more about risks than the great strategic leaps. 

Or we can choose the most desirable and preferable scenario for us, build a strategy around it, and cross our fingers. 

2. Foresight methods

Foresight schools and theories offer us another approach. We can also develop some future scenarios, but our primary goal won’t be to guess which will play out or prepare for them all.

We’ll need to choose the most desirable one and ask ourselves: “What strategy can bring us there? What can we do to make this scenario happen?” 

This approach appears to be more proactive than reactive. We don’t try to guess what will happen in the future because we know it is impossible. We try to create the future we want to live and work in. 

3. “Flexible strategy” or “Agile strategy” 

This is the elusive mythical creature everyone has heard of but no one has ever seen. 

Some theorists insist that we must build a strategy that will work in any conceivable future scenario. 

For me, this is equivalent to having no strategy at all. It may work for a flock of young digital explorers but not for a company that has assets to leverage, a history, and a brand.

4. Look for what won’t change

This principle was first proposed by Jeff Bezos. He claimed that he built Amazon’s strategy on the simple idea: people would always buy things and want to do it conveniently and affordably.

Humans will always want to feel safe. They will always seek acceptance and warmth. Every person on Earth likes to maintain social connections.

We all share the same sixteen basic needs (read more here). 

If your product or solution addresses one of the basic human needs directly and explicitly, it has a chance to be successful, whatever happens in the future. 

Conclusion

Strategic thinking implies contemplating the future. There are many ways to do this.

My favorites are #2 and #4. I’ve done it many times in my strategic projects, and they have always worked well.

If you want to learn more about foresight games, read more here.

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