Manure, foresight, and the future

A foresight game as a practical tool

A foresight game as a practical tool

“Heavier than air flying machines are not possible.” Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1895

“Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”. Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943

“The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894” was a title of an article published in 2004. The name refers to a supposed 1894 publication in The Times, which said, “In 50 years, every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure”. The reasoning was that more horses are needed to remove the manure, and these horses produce more manure. I believe no one needs to go to London to ensure that the city’s streets are clean and that the air doesn’t smell of horse excrement.

As I mentioned in one of my previous posts, humans are inferior future thinkers, and there is scientific evidence of it. The future thinking skills were not evolu…