Good CEOs See the Distant Future. Great Ones Master the Near Term
Two ideas and one simple tool for razor-sharp future thinking
CEOs burn tons of energy trying to predict the future — when what really matters is often right under their noses.
After studying how top business leaders approach future thinking, exploring strategic foresight, and applying those ideas in dozens of strategy projects, I've developed a simple formula.
It’s not rocket science — but it’s practical, clear, and it actually helps.
When bold predictions meet harsh reality
In its 2016 report, Gartner predicted that:
1. By 2020, 100 million consumers will shop in augmented reality
2. By 2020, 30% of web browsing sessions will be done without a screen
3. By 2022, a blockchain-based business will be worth $10 billion
4. By 2020, 40% of employees can cut their healthcare costs by wearing a fitness tracker
As you can see, only prediction #3 came true. In other predictions, Gartner was about as accurate as I am when playing darts with my nephews.
As Christopher Mims, a tech columnist for The Wall Street Journal, once noted, “dis…
