Forecast and foresight — what’s the difference?

They have little in common

They have little in common

“The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894” was a title of an article published in 2004. The name refers to a supposed 1894 publication in The Times, which said, “In 50 years, every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure”. The reasoning was that more horses are needed to remove the manure, and these horses produce more manure. I believe no one needs to go to London to ensure that the city’s streets are clean and that the air doesn’t smell of horse excrement.

This was an example of a forecast (and quite a linear one) — an attempt to see tomorrow’s picture using facts and numbers that are at hand. In simple words, that’s what forecasters do. The most familiar example is a weather forecast — we use it daily. But, of course, not all the forecasts are such blunt. And even people are often skeptical of forecasts, many significant decisions worldwide are made daily basing on forecasts, and there are many institutions whose job is to make them. But I wi…