An Illusion of The Unchanging World
And the Three Tens exercise to overcome it
Strategy — map it out yourself
And the Three Tens exercise to overcome it
People don’t think clearly. Our cognitive biases list is long and gets even longer over time. The good news is that we can overcome most of them. In this article, I will tell you about one widespread fallacy and how you can overpower it.
The End of History Illusion
In 2012 three scientists, Jordi Quoidbach, Daniel T. Gilbert, and Timothy D. Wilson conducted a study.
They asked as many as 19,000 people aged 18 to 68 to report how much they had changed in the past decade. All the participants said they had changed a lot. Then the experimenters offered them to make projections for the next decade. Most of them claimed that they would change relatively little in the future. The scientists called this effect the End of History Illusion.
Similar stories happen in the business world as well. Several months ago, I conducted a strategic workshop for an international enterprise. We had some dif…